Speaking
to many of Australia’s top media and marketing executives, Media (The Australian) found
the jitters of recent weeks had unsettled many players, but there
remained a cautious optimism that the combination of the ongoing
digital revolution, an Olympic year and the resilience of consumers
would hedge against the clouds of recession circling the globe.
But there are also fears that any slip in consumer confidence could
lead to advertisers paring back budgets with an immediate flow-on
effect to the media industry.
Media and entertainment forecasts by Merrill Lynch have warned that
if advertising growth slips to 3 per cent, the effect could multiply
for many of the nation’s biggest media players.
Media stocks are already being hit by the falling market, with the
share price of Triple M owner Austereo now down 22 per cent since the
market peaked in November.
Similarly Fairfax Media shares are down 19 per cent, shares in The
Australian’s owner News Corporation are down 9 per cent; shares in
regional pay-TV group Austar are down 7 per cent and seek.com.au shares
are down 30 per cent.
Even shares in Channel Seven, which this week was revealed as the
biggest winner of TV ad revenue in the last half, were down 21 per
cent.
But while the implications of an advertising slowdown are grim,
media players have little doubt the market will remain an active one as
media reforms continue to reshape the industry.
Digital remains the word on everyone’s lips, no matter what the medium.
Karim Temsamani, general manager of Google in Australia, said the
influence of video websites such as YouTube would continue to grow, but
the application of search – the world’s fastest growing advertising
medium – would further accelerate the growth of video online in 2008.
He also noted that map search, what he dubbed "geoweb" would also become a major trend of the year.
News Digital Media chief Richard Freudenstein echoed the belief that
video online would grow in domination, while DDB advertising creative
director and vice-chairman Matt Eastwood said it would become a central
theme of many ad campaigns during the year.
Yet even as digital remains uppermost in the plans of media
companies, the share plunge of Australian company Bluefreeway yesterday
and Yahoo’s announcement of thousands of job cuts demonstrated the
sector was not immune to global financial jitters.
Broadcasters agree that HD TV will become a defining element of the
year, with Seven and Ten already broadcasting HD streams and Foxtel
launching its HD offer last night.
But content could become a major issue, and the ongoing writers
strike in the US could see an increase in local production, talent
agent Kevin Whyte said.
The magazine sector, which endured a series of takeovers and mergers in 2007, looks to this year eagerly.
ACP’s Scott Lorson, who last week closed The Bulletin after its
128-year run, expected there to be further consolidation as niche
players were acquired.
Nick Chan at Pacific Publications expected the result of last year to lead to an era of innovation and risk taking.
At a government level, Minister for Broadband, Communications and
the Digital Economy Stephen Conroy said he expected continued growth in
user-generated content, but predicted the Beijing Olympics would be a
high point, demonstrating the true potential of digital.
Leave a Comment