Newcastle TV Ratings, Predictions v. Reality

18Feb08

The first television rating week has been run and convincingly won by NBN. The decision by the Nine Network and NBN to run cricket in the first month of survey appears to have paid off. Nine won the week nationally and NBN cleaned up in Newcastle. Still its only week one and the cricket will come to an end soon.

How did my predictions stack up in week one? 

Sunday
We said the cricket would stir things up and that Prime’s line-up of
Kath & Kim repeats and Samantha Who was weak We thought that Grey’s
would bring some numbers back though. TEN’s Dance and Movie line-up was
expected to put up a strong fight.

The Reality: NBN hit them for a six and TEN beat Prime. Big win NBN

Monday
We expected Prime to romp it in on what has been a strong night in the
past. Wrong, wrong wrong. NBN’s oldies (Royal family, CSI’s) were too
strong for Prime crime, security and chick favourites.

The Reality: Another big win for NBN, Prime a distant second TEN further back again.

Tuesday
This is a traditionally good night for Prime and we picked them to
maintain the advantage here. NBN was rolling out some new product in
Monster House and Terminator. Both failed to perform.

The Reality: Prime’s only winning night. NBN well back in second.TEN with a lot of work to do.

Wednesday
This has been hard fought territory for the last few years. We picked
NBN to win (if Underbelly aired) followed by TEN (thanks to House) with
Prime third.

The Reality: Underbelly did air and blew the others away. Finally
Australia has produced a stunningly good drama, deserving of the
ratings success it achieved in week one. It helped NBN to its biggest
result of the week. Prime was a distant second while TEN flopped
enormously and was even beaten by ABC’s comedy line-up.

Thursday:
We felt that NBN’s old-shows would be creaking too badly to win
tonight. Prime’s line-up isn’t as strong as previous years yet but we
thought they might hang in there. Wrong again.

The Reality: NBN’s Getway, RPA and Kitchen Nightmares romped it in soundly beating Prime’s confusing line-up of The Amazing Race, new Glenn Robbins series Out of the Question,
Family Guy and Lost. Once again TEN was well off the pace with Biggest Loser,
Saving Kids, Law and Order and Medium.


Friday
We didn’t see anyone beating NBN any Friday night this year with their cricket and footy combo.

The Reality: Week one confirmed this. Big win to NBN.


Saturday
We thought it might be a wide-open race due to overall weak programming.

The Reality: Comfy win to NBN. ABC beat Prime by 4 points and TEN was just keeping its nose in front of SBS.

Conclusions: The cricket has been an interruptive master-stroke for Nine/NBN thus far, preventing several new programs from building up early audience on  TEN and Prime.
The older Hunter viewers have settled back into their armchairs while the under 50′s are flicking around or not buying into some of their previous favourites. NBN may be back much stronger than expected, much earlier than expected.

Newcastle Market – All Stations Top 10
1    Underbelly    NBN    95000
2    NBN Evening News Sunday    NBN    85000
3    It Takes Two    PRIME    78000
4    CSI: Crime Scene Investigation    NBN    75000
5    All Saints    PRIME    74000
6    RPA    NBN    70000
7    A Current Affair    NBN    69000
8    Agatha Christie’s Miss Marple    ABC    68000
9    NBN Evening News Monday to Friday    NBN    68000
10    Home & Away    PRIME    67000

                Week 7 2008    Week 7 2007    Prog 2008    Prog 2007
NBN               33.5                    35.8                33.5            35.8
PRIME            24.8                    26.2                24.8            26.2
TEN                18.0                    15.3                18.0            15.3
ABC                17.2                    17.2                17.2            17.2
SBS                   6.4                     5.5                   6.4            5.5

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