New programs jostle for market share

7Feb08

Seven won its first ratings year in more than two decades with a 29
per cent share of night-time viewers in 2007 against Nine’s 26.9 per
cent and Ten’s 21.9.

Nine and Seven shared the ratings spoils through the summer, with
Seven winning all weeks other than the last of 2007 and the first of
2008, which went to Nine. While the Beijing Olympics will complicate
matters for Seven’s competitors, each network goes into the new season
hoping for, rather than anticipating, break-out hits.

Even so, a month of one-day cricket will confuse schedules through
February, as has network cadging as they try to second-guess the
flow-on effects of the Writers Guild of America strike, which looks set
to be resolved this weekend.

Much of Seven’s success in 2007 came from its improved performance on Sunday nights, previously Nine’s stronghold.

However, Nine will test the flying start to Ten’s So You Think You
Can Dance Australia with three weeks of one-dayers before 60 Minutes
returns in March.

The absence of new Kath & Kim episodes will hurt Seven, although
Grey’s Anatomy and Australia’s Got Talent will be worthy ratings
pullers if The Zoo and Bush Doctors can hold their own. Sunday night
will be a battlefield, with Ten sweating on the legs of Big Brother and
Australian Idol.

Seven won Mondays in 2007 and will be hard to top, with Border
Security and The Force returning ahead of Desperate Housewives. SBS’s
Top Gear juggernaut confuses the 7.30pm slot, and it is still unclear
as to whether Nine will premiere any of its new game-show formats in
the 8.30pm timeslot or try to debut Cashmere Mafia on Mondays.

Seven dominated Tuesdays last year and is likely to do so again with
It Takes Two and Dancing With The Stars, which will have a new host.
Nine’s comedy Monster House is the unknown quantity, and Terminator:
The Sarah Connor Chronicles is unlikely to be Nine’s Tuesday panacea.

Wednesdays will continue to be the hardest-fought night of the week
as Nine aims to dominate with reality program The Chopping Block and
crime series Underbelly. Initially, Seven has a mixed bag against them,
with the ratings winner RSPCA Animal Rescue preceding The Real
Seachange and the Inspector Morse spin-off Lewis, a more sober British
alternative to Underbelly, Ten’s House and the new ABC double of Spicks
and Specks and Stupid Stupid Man.

Seven could counter-program one of the few hits of the latest US season, Grey’s spin-off Peak Practice, on Wednesdays.

Like Ten without Thank God You’re Here, the ABC’s fine Wednesday
performance in 2007 will be nobbled by the absence of The Chaser’s War
on Everything.

Nine improved its share on Thursdays last year thanks to RPA and Sea
Patrol, the second series of which has concluded filming. Seven’s Out
Of The Question is a work in progress and it remains to be seen whether
Lost, which has stormed back to credibility in its new US season, might
work against Nine’s reality programming at 9.30pm.

Nine will dominate Friday nights with one-day cricket initially
before the annual AFL and NRL ratings carve-up battle continues across
the nation.

Saturday remains the most open evening, with Seven’s Gladiators the
logical program to take some mighty share in the 6.30 slot on that
night or Sundays. The search continues for Saturday night variety.

With the paucity of new US winners and the uncertainty about future
US production, ratings incumbency looks a strong position. But the only
certainty is early ratings instability.

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