Battle Begins for the Second Half

24Jul07

For the last few years the Seven Network (and Prime affiliates) have launched into the ratings year with a strong line-up of A-list shows. Desperate Housewives, Grey’s Anatomy, Lost, My Name is Earl to name a few. This has helped them get of to a flier in the ratings race, but proves problematic when the season run out and they have to replace them with their B-list shows.

Last year it meant that Seven limped to the finish line for a very close finish with Nine after establishing a strong lead earlier in the year.

2007 sees the battle continue but perhaps with a few new tactics being employed.

Once again Seven launched into the ratings race with their excellent line-up of popular programs plus a few new starters like Ugly Betty. Once again they raced away to a convincing victory in the first half of the year. Nine only won two weeks while TEN had an appalling start and is only just starting to make ground.

But now the B-listers are starting to arrive for Seven. Desperate Housewives is gone and Criminal Minds has taken its place. It’s not a bad show but pulled a much lower audience than the Despos in its opening episode.

Lost finishes up this week. Prison Break shot through last week. Earl went back to the trailer park a few weeks ago and the confused surgeons of Greys Anatomy are about to disappear.

What will we be seeing instead? That 70′s Show, Las Vegas, Bones. The brightest stars on Seven’s horizon are Kath and Kim, but their arrival has been delayed yet again. That will most likely take care of 30 minutes on Sunday night (against 60 Minutes no less) but the rest of the week is looking…weak.

Already TEN have started to make some gains with the return of Thank God You’re Here to back up House. They have a limp Big Brother drawing to a close but will be boosted again by Australian Idol.

Amongst all this Nine (and NBN) continue with their tried and true selection of CSI’s and highlight shows (What a Year, 20 to 1, Things to Try Before You Die). Sea Patrol has given them a big boost while the business end of the footy seasons will help. But otherwise their 2nd half offerings are not too exciting either. They will be hoping that Seven will fall back to the pack enough to win a few more weeks.

The wild card that may be played from September is the potential early return of some of the big guns. All 3 networks have been debating the option of running their best US shows only a week or two after their US premieres, rather than 6 months later in the new year. Seven are rumoured to be most likely to adopt this tactic with Prison Break, possibly 24 and one other.

Nine may also adopt this tactic, not with their current line-up, but with new series they have picked up from the US in recent months.

If so, we could be in for a much tighter race in the second half and a new direction in programming tactics. The next few weeks will see much of the status quo changing as old programs are retired and new ones arrive.

Immediate release is something the ad industry should be encouraging as it will keep viewers tuning in to TV rather than downloading programs they can’t wait for.It might also mean that our Summer content  is offer higher quality as the networks will still have plenty of product available to run, that was pushed aside for the immediate release programs.

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