2008 Newcastle TV Ratings Forecast

8Feb08

The summer silly season grinds to a halt this weekend as the formal TV ratings system kicks back into gear for 2008. And what an intriguing year it promises to be in the Hunter ratings race, with plenty of anticipation and uncertainty.

2007 ended with NBN winning every ratings week, but looking nervously over their shoulders as Prime came within a whisker of taking their first ever non-Olympics winning weeks. While NBN claimed the mantle of ratings winners, it seemed Prime were a lot happier, having stitched up the 25-54 audience against NBN’s aging viewers. SC Ten finished the year a little stronger and performed well in their target audience of 16-39 years. It set up an eagerly awaited battle for 2008.

This year Prime is back with another strong line-up that should see
them pick up quickly from where they ended in November. NBN has some
pep in their step with David Gyngell (Nine CEO) breathing new life into
the strife torn network and some great new original programming on the
way.  TEN has picked up a few decent new shows and has performed well
over the summer, so are hoping for that to carry though.

So everything is set for a battle royale, except there are a few Jokers
in the pack this year. The US writers strike means that there is a lot
of uncertainty about how many episodes the stations will have to run of
their biggest US programs. Media Hunter understands that most of the
big shows (Lost, Desperate Housewives, Greys Anatomy and more) have
only 8 episodes in the can. It seems the networks are betting on the
strike to be resolved in time to have the remainder of their series
delivered in time to air in two months. Otherwise we will see some
frantic scheduling issues.

NBN/ Nine have one day cricket running until the end of February for
the first time ever. This runs neatly into the beginning of the footy
season. So from Sunday we will have the high rating cricket up against
proven ratings champs like Greys Anatomy. I am not sure how this will
lay out, but will most likely thwart the Prime early season onslaught a
little and split the male/female audiences.

The final Joker just reared its head this week when the Nine / NBN
series Underbelly came under threat from a court order. Underbelly
looks like the quality, innovative programming that Nine / NBN needed
to give them some street cred and begin dragging back a younger
audience, nd I couldn’t wait for episode 1. It would be a cruel blow if
it was unable to air as scheduled after such a bold and expensive
investment by the network.

So my fearless predictions for the beginning of 2008….

Sunday
Prime are running Kath & Kim repeats followed by Samantha Who?,
which looks a little weak. Greys Anatomy will pull the ladies and
romantics back in big numbers. NBN will have cricket in Feb and that
should really stir things up and keep the guys tuned in, although it
will be older guys. Ten start strongly with the new So You Think You
Can Dance Australia and groovy movies like 40 Year Old Virgin. Its
close across the 3 stations with this line-up, so expect to see an
evenly spread result.

Monday
Prime have enjoyed great Monday success in recent years and should
continue this year. Border Security and The Force are big winners.
Desperate has lost some shine but will likely pull good numbers early
to see how its going this year. Dirty Sexy Money has been the most
plugged Prime show this year and for good reason. Its funny, naughty,
and highly entertaining. It should do well of the back of the girls of
Wisteria Lane. NBN has stodgy old stuff like A Year with the Royal
Family and yet another year of CSI and CSI: NY. Ten have more Dance and
the relaunched, commercial Good News Week. Top Gear on SBS will pull
some numbers too. Prime will romp it in on Mondays.

Tuesday
Historically another strong Prime night could be under threat this
year. It Takes Two and All Saints on Prime don’t look quite as
dominating against NBN comedy Monster House, Terminator: The Sarah
Connor Chronicles and CSI: MIami. TEN will roll out Biggest Loser,
Bondi Rescue, Womens Murder Club and Burn Notice. Another fairly even
race with a slight edge to Prime.

Wednesday
This has always been a hard fought night and one which TEN usually
enjoyed some success. This year TEN have new series Rules of
Engagement, Kelsey Grammer  comedy Back To You and the ever popular
grumpy doctor House followed by Numbers. Prime go with RSPCA Animal
Rescue, The Real Sea Change and new series Lewis. NBN are banking on a
big night here with new series The Chopping Block, and the
abovementioned Underbelly. Just to stir things up more, ABC return with
the highly popular Spicks and Specks and Little Britain (but only for a
week).  A lot hinges on Underbelly being allowed to air. If it does
after the publicity of the court order this week, it could be big. NBN
first, TEN second, Prime third. (only if Underbelly airs.)

Thursday

Getaway, RPA and Kitchen Nightmares USA on NBN seems a little soft this
year and still carries the ghost of old network programing.  Prime lead
with The Amazing Race, new Glenn Robbins series Out of the Question,
Family Guy and Lost (getting very buried). TEN have Biggest Loser,
Saving Kids, Law and Order and Medium. This is tough but I think Prime
might have the edge overall, especially if reports that Lost has
returned to top form are true.

Fridays
NBN will dominate here with cricket then Rugby League in March being too tough to program against.

Saturdays
This is wide open. Prime’s Gladiators promises to make it interesting.

Summary: Its going to be a close race this year. Prime have a lot of
momentum on their side after a storming finish last year. Once again
their line-up looks very strong. I expect they will finally win a few
weeks in February and March. The Olympics later in the year will also
give Prime big numbers and more momentum going into the last third of
the ratings year. NBN (and NIne) are ready for the fight and have some
good programs coming. They will take some hits early, and again during
the Olympics. I feel that David Gyngells changes and influence will
take some time to filter through, so late year could see some
resurgence with 2009 seeing them well and truly back on track. Of course the NBN Evening News will continue to launch the station to a strong start every night and could be the main reason they win.

NBN will win the year, but not by much from Prime who I feel are going
to peak this year. TEN will continue to run third but with improving
numbers, especially in their key demo. Its going to be a great battle.

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